The anti-drug war is destined to be a protracted and difficult one. No country in the world can proudly claim that it has won this war. Fortunately the ROC is a newcomer and is able to draw from the experiences of other more "advanced" countries. And the ROC government's timely declaration of war on drugs has not only had a symbolic meaning but led to intensified interdiction and education efforts which are beginning to generate positive results.
In 1994, there were reported drug shortages in the black market and prices went up sharply. For heroin, the volume seized dropped 40%, from 1, 114 kilograms to 680 kilograms, but offenders convicted went up 25%, from 12,887 to 16,174. For methamphetamine, the opposite was the case: volume seized went up 105%, from 3,357 to 6,869 kilograms whereas offenders convicted dropped 27%, from 34,949 to 27,434. However, for the first seven months of 1995, all indicators are further down compared to the same period in 1994. Specifically 212 kilograms of heroin and 836 kilograms of finished methamphetamine were seized, 62% and 21% repsectively less than the amount in the same period of 1994, Meanwhile, offenders convicted went down 29%. Moreover, as drug cases and the number of offenders indicted went down 26% and 24% respectively, there will be further decline in the number of convicted offenders six months or one year down the road. The most satisfactory result is that the number of juvenile of fenders went down 50% in 1994 and 34% during the first six months of 1995. These positive developments seem to suggest that while the drug epidemic is still around, the peak may be over. The year 1995 might look like the year 1991, the beginning of the epidemic. In any cas, it is most encouraging to see sustained negative growth in the drug scene after successive dramatic growth three years in a row.
Another significant sign was the increase of recidivism from 32% to 46% and decrease of new offenders from 68% to 54%. This seems to suggest that given the overall decline of drug users as shown above, public education programs might have had some effects in preventing non-users of drugs from becoming users.
The reduction in both supply and demand in the last two years encourages us to push ahead the anti-drug campaign even harder. I am sure that as long as we firmly carry out this strategy to the end sooner or later we will be able to gradually contain, if not eliminate the drug epidemic in our society. For those who are familiar with modern Chinese history, they will recall that in the six decades after Britain defeated the Manchu government of the Ching Dynasty in the Opium War in 1842, more than 70% of male adult opium smokers in the whole world were found in China. We Chinese cannot afford to lose this second Opium War. With a determined government, an awakened general public, and a sound strategy, I am confident that we will win this time!
